The unfolding crisis in Syria is a subject of intense scrutiny in the global media landscape, yet its root causes remain poorly understood by the public. The narrative pushed by the Assad regime and its allies, accuses vaguely defined Western forces and distracts from the more substantive issues at play. A detailed examination of three statistical trends: demographic shifts, climate change, and growing unemployment rate, yield an evidence-based explanation for the triggers of the spiraling crisis in Syria.
Officially, the ruling party in Syria is still the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party, which came to power through a coup d’état in 1963. From an economic standpoint, the first years of the Ba’ath party rule were quite successful, due to the close ties of the socialist government with the Soviet Union. In the 1960s, Syrian GDP per capita grew 80% and then peaked during the 1970s with 336% of total GDP growth.[1] The Soviet Union became the biggest export destination for Syrian agricultural products, oil, and minerals such as phosphate rock.
Economic prosperity paralleled with global improvements in public health care led to a population boom in Syria. Traditional Syrian families had 4-5 children, who were seen as extra working hands in the family farmhouses. Agriculture accounted for almost one-third of the Syrian GDP, thus many Syrians were motivated to have more children. Consequently, the population of Syria grew from 4 million in 1950 to 22 million in 2010, which turned into a heavy burden for a socialist government to accommodate, especially as the economy started to slow down.
The number of Syrians who belong to the age group of 15-24 grew from 2.5 million in 1990 to 4,6 million in 2010, which meant that every year during this period there was a demand for 400 thousand new workplaces.[2] It was a very challenging task for the government that suffered from rampant corruption and lack of proper free-market mechanisms. The honeymoon phase of an economic model that relied mainly on extractive industries was coming to an end, but the population growth was not. Traditional and conservative Syrians look down on either using contraception or generally any attempts to limit family size.[3]
This became an especially heavy burden for the Assad regime, during the drought of 2006 – 2010 in Syria.[4] According to meteorologists the drought and high temperatures during this period were unprecedented in the recorded history of Syria, where winter rainfall decreased by at least a third. In a country where almost 90 percent of fresh water is used for agricultural harvests, such drought devastated the economy. Close to 800 000 farm households were left out of business and nearly 1,5 million Syrians migrated from agricultural regions to the cities.
In March 2011, economically devastated, and politically oppressed, but stimulated by popular revolts in the neighboring countries Syrian citizens in big cities went out on the streets to demand political and economic reforms. Unfortunately, instead of trying to address the problems of Syrian citizens, the Assad regime retaliated by shooting at its people, and the events snowballed into a Civil War from there.
So, contrary to various narratives promoted by the ousted Assad regime and its sympathizers, the Syrian crisis is not a conspiracy plot of external forces. Syria was impacted by the global technological evolution, decentralized media space, and uprisings in the broader Middle East region. Additionally, the lack of international consensus contributed to the protraction and even escalation of the conflict. As Assad’s army continued to kill its people many countries around the world called for his resignation, but others like Russia and Iran supported the Assad regime, as they did not want to lose an ally in Damascus. However, at the bottom of it all, the root causes of the Syrian crisis are tied to domestic issues: population trends, climate factors and most importantly government mismanagement.
[1] Syria, Country Study Guide: Strategic Information and Developments. Vol. I. Washington DC: International Business Publications, 2013. p. 124
[2] Бологов, Петр. “Война на перекрестке цивилизаций. 10 причин, почему именно Сирия.”
Slon Magazine, 18 Sept. 2015. https://slon.ru/posts/56638
[3] Sands, Phil. “Population Surge in Syria Hampers Country’s Progress.” The National. March 6, 2011. Accessed October 1, 2015. http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/population-surge-in-syria-hampers-countrys-progress.
[4] “Did Climate Change Help Spark The Syrian War?” Columbia University: Earth Institute. March 2, 2015. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/news-events/did-climate-change-help-spark-syrian-war.